Post-Covid demographic data is at best preliminary, but real estate responds more quickly than census enumerators. ![]() San Francisco’s official population had already begun to decline slightly last year, shedding some 2,500 people from its all-time high of 884,000. economy braces for persistent interest rate hikes and a potential recession, the effect on local economies could vary depending on the “nature of the slowdown,” according to the institute.For a region blanketed by wildfire smoke and gradually phasing out the stricter terms of its coronavirus lockdown, it’s an abrupt shift from the prolonged boom that emerged from the late-1990s tech frenzy. Growth in New Orleans and Orlando, which occupy ninth and 10th places, respectively, is pegged to tourism and hospitality. That’s followed by Salt Lake City and Charlotte. Denver is up next, as it benefits from individuals moving back to the city to escape from urban areas. ![]() The fifth city on the list is Dallas, which stood out as the only metro area to experience population growth at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. In fourth place is the Raleigh/Durham area in North Carolina, commonly referred to as the Research Triangle for its strong university-powered biotech research base. The city has witnessed the adoption of clean technology in construction and manufacturing projects, drawing job seekers interested in environment-related jobs. Its GDP expanded by 3.5% in 2022, driven by industries like software and biotech. Next comes Seattle, the home of Microsoft, Amazon, and Boeing. With its GDP growing 4.3% this year, the report notes that the labor gains may have peaked as companies in Austin slow their hiring. The second region on the list is Austin, which has emerged as a tech hub, with a crop of Amazon, Oracle, Google, and Tesla offices in the city. The pandemic-fueled shift to remote work was key to “expanding the valuation and cultural status” of companies like Zoom, the report observed. The San Francisco Bay Area claimed the number one position on the list with 4.8% growth in 2022, driven by technology, innovation, and startup growth. ![]() The top five metro areas on that list boast two cities in Texas, a state that has boomed in the remote work era, and the top 10 include two North Carolina cities. Although the report didn’t say so explicitly, the impact of remote work was all over the findings. It looked at data from employment rates, skills and wage levels, industry growth potential, and more to forecast the economic growth for the largest economically connected metropolitan areas in the U.S. The report measured real-time growth in gross domestic product for the year till August 2022. Some local economies are growing faster than others due to a mix of microeconomic and business factors, the Kenan report says, as it ultimately points to how and where Americans are choosing to live and work. The new study from the Kenan Institute suggests that downtown San Francisco had to die so its surrounding metro area could thrive. “The fact that, until mid-2022, most of the city’s vacant space is on the sublease market, and still generating rent for the building owners, is an indication of the lag between a downturn in office demand, and a downturn in property tax,” the San Francisco Controller’s Office wrote in a memorandum the same month. Since then, data on which downtown facilities were actually being used by workers, provided by Kastle Systems, has consistently shown that San Francisco lags behind other major cities in return-to-work progress.Īnd just last month, San Francisco Mayor London Breed said that remote work had become a permanent fixture in many people’s lives, and would likely cause a “ major hit” to the city’s budget as commercial property values plummet. By the end of 2020, an estimated 45% jobs, or 1.79 million in total, were eligible for remote work in the Bay Area, according to the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.
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